Cybergeddon
Russia apparently has executed
the most sophisticated and potentially most
dangerous cyber-attack in history on the U.S.
Government and private sector, penetrating the
defenses of even the Cyber and Infrastructure
Security Agency (CISA)—that is supposed to be
the chief guardian against such threats to U.S.
critical infrastructures.
For at least 9 months,
cyber-spies roamed undetected through: the
National Nuclear Security Administration
(responsible for U.S. nuclear weapons); the
Department of Energy and Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission (responsible for
protecting national electric grids); defense
contractors designing the nation’s most advanced
weapons; and 18,000 other government and
corporate victims.
Still unknown is the scale and
depth of the damage.
We will be fortunate if the still
continuing cyber-attack is “merely” an
intelligence gathering operation, and not also a
sabotage mission implanting logic-bombs,
viruses, and cyber-bugs for future use.
Premature claims the cyber-attack
is for spying, not sabotage, smells like making
excuses to understate potential damage—and to
escape acknowledging an act of war.
Washington does not know what to
do.
As after past major
cyber-attacks, Washington is full of sound and
fury, promising reforms and retribution, that
will probably come to nothing.
Washington’s impotence and
irresolution will invite future, increasingly
aggressive, cyber-attacks.
Yet for decades Washington has
been competently counseled on cyber-threats and
solutions. 23 years ago, for example, the
President’s Commission on Critical
Infrastructure Protection in their report
“Critical Foundations: Protecting America’s
Infrastructures” (October 1997) warned:
“In the cyber dimension there are
no boundaries. Our infrastructures are exposed
to new vulnerabilities—cyber vulnerabilities—and
new threats—cyber threats. And perhaps most
difficult of all, the defenses that served us so
well in the past offer little protection from
the cyber threat. Our infrastructures can now
be struck directly by a variety of malicious
tools.”
The Defense Science Board report
“Resilient Military Systems and the Advanced
Cyber Threat” (January 2013) warned: “While the
manifestation of a nuclear and cyber attack are
very different, in the end, the existential
impact to the United States is the same.”
Most dangerous, Washington is
ignorant of the full magnitude of the
cyber-threat, that has kinetic and nuclear
dimensions. The Congressional EMP Commission
warns:
“Combined-arms cyber warfare, as
described in the military doctrines of Russia,
China, North Korea, and Iran, may use
combinations of cyber-, sabotage-, and
ultimately nuclear EMP-attack to impair the
United States quickly and decisively by
blacking-out large portions of the electric grid
and other critical infrastructures…The synergism
of such combined arms is described in the
military doctrines of all these potential
adversaries as the greatest revolution in
military affairs in history—one which projects
rendering obsolete many, if not all, traditional
instruments of military power.” (“Assessing the
Threat from EMP Attack” July 2017)
Is it significant that the
protracted 9-months attack on the U.S. in the
cyber-domain preceded and coincides with
Russia’s major strategic forces exercise on
December 9, wherein dictator Vladimir Putin
personally oversaw live-launching ICBMs, SLBMs,
and cruise missiles, simulating a nuclear war
against the United States?
Is it significant that on
December 15, Russia test-launched an
anti-satellite missile, threatening assets
critical to the U.S. military and economy in the
domain of space?
Is it significant that Russia’s
VOSTOK 2018 massive military exercise,
mobilizing 300,000 troops, 1,000 aircraft, and
simulating a nuclear World War III, was preceded
by cyber-attacks on hundreds of U.S. electric
utilities?
Cyber-attacks by Russia, China,
and North Korea are not only about stealing U.S.
intellectual property and collecting
intelligence on U.S. vulnerabilities, but also
about testing U.S. responses. Most
ominously—they are practicing a revolutionary
new way of warfare coordinating all arms for
cyber, space, and terrestrial blitzkrieg.
Washington seems incapable of
connecting the dots, unlike Lt. Colonel (ret.)
Bob Lindseth, former Deputy Director for
Intelligence on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and
Professor of Information Operations at National
Intelligence University:
“In today’s world a nuclear
conflict will be preceded by Cyber operations in
every form.” (December 18, 2020)
Unlike Admiral (ret.) William
Studeman, former Acting Director CIA:
“I see little discussion anywhere
of threats which integrate cyber and nuclear
(all kinds including EMP) in both the offensive
and defense…All these experts seem to stay in
their ‘vertical/stove-piped’ fields of expertise
and thinking. I think that Cyber/Information
Operations and nuclear integrated
threats/vulnerabilities considered together need
more and new thinking.” (December 17, 2020)
What is to be done?
Washington’s favorite solution—a
global treaty on cyberwarfare—will NOT work,
despite advocacy by such enthusiasts as
Microsoft’s President Brad Smith: “We need a set
of binding rules. And we need a commitment by
the democracies to hold authoritarian regimes
accountable, so they keep their hands off of
civilians in this time of peace when it comes to
cyberspace.” (December 15, 2020)
Authoritarian regimes will sign
anything and cheat on everything.
We need real technical experts on
cyber and EMP in charge of protecting the
nation.
Chris Krebs, Director of CISA
until recently fired, a lawyer and former
lobbyist for Microsoft, with no deep technical
expertise on cyber or EMP, is the poster child
for failure.
Washington needs to read, heed,
and rapidly implement the recommendations of its
expert commissions and boards.
Dr. Peter Vincent Pry is
Executive Director of the Task Force on National
and Homeland Security, served as Chief of Staff
of the Congressional EMP Commission, and on the
staffs of the House Armed Services Committee and
the CIA. He has authored numerous books and
articles on EMP and Cyber Warfare.
https://www.newsmax.com/peterpry/cyberattacks-nuclear-exercises-cisa/2020/12/21/id/1002586/
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