On July 9, Britain’s largest circulation newspaper, the DailyMail,
claimed Ukrainian officials believed Ukraine was “suffering
more than 20,000 casualties a month;” and, currently: “200
troops are killed and 800 wounded daily.”Moreover,
there were: “fears that the true
scale of losses is being understated.”1
This casualty count jibes with a June 15 Axios report
which quoted Ukraine’s lead negotiator and top Zelensky adviser,
David Arakhamia, saying:
“Up to 1,000 Ukrainian
soldiers are being killed and wounded each day in the Donbass
region of eastern Ukraine, with 200 to 500 killed on average and
many more wounded…” 2
Ukraine’s navy didn’t survive Day One
In mid-June, when asked about a daily Ukrainian casualty
report of 100 killed and 300 wounded, JCS Chair General Milley
said such figures were “in
the ballpark of our assessments.” 3 Milley
wouldn’t specify if this was a low-ball assessment. It was.
Arakhamia’s coy limiter was “in
the Donbass.” Fighting also occurs north and southwest of
the Donbass; while Russian missiles inflict casualties across
Ukraine.
Nevertheless, the Axios and DailyMail articles
are examples of the truth about Ukrainian casualties
slipping past the censors. This truth confirms Russian
estimates. In mid-July a spokesman for the Russian-allied
Donetsk Republic placed Ukrainian casualties at: 50,000
dead, 150,000 wounded.
This casualty count is believable given that only one
adversary in this war possesses a navy while the theatre
of engagement encompasses 2,700 kilometers of Black Sea
coast. Ukraine’s navy didn’t survive Day One. The
Russians have lost two ships.
This casualty count is believable given that only one
adversary has an air force; and that air force is the
world’s second-most powerful. Ukraine’s main 14 airbases
were among the 800 targets obliterated on Day One. The
Russians have so far destroyed 16 airbases and 260
aircraft. Russian aircraft losses remain shrouded but
could hardly represent a scratch on their combat-ready
inventory of 1,100 fighter jets and 137 strategic
bombers.
Howitzers not missiles, however, are this war’s grim
reaper
While Russians boast an array of air-launched
precision munitions, Kalibr cruise missiles are
their weapon of choice. The most deployed Kalibr,
the 3M-54, sports a 7-meter tubular frame and a
turbojet engine. 3M-54s cruise at Mach 0.8 but
accelerate to Mach 3 before impact. 3M-54s can be
also launched from ships or submarines; and can hit
buildings 1,500 kilometers away with 450-kilogram
warheads. Kalibrs have blasted hundreds of
Ukrainian munitions warehouses, army barracks etc.
Howitzers not missiles, however, are this war’s grim
reaper. While artillery has been ‘king of battle’
since Napoleon, the Russo-Ukrainian War debuts an
historic wedding of howitzers to drones.
Russia’s Krasnopal artillery shells (typically fired
from armored self-propelled MSTA 152-mm howitzers)
are laser-guided to their targets by loitering
drones. Rocket-assisted Krasnopals can hit
stationary battle tanks 40 kilometers from launch.
Their 7-kilogram warheads rocket straight down onto
their prey, guaranteeing armor penetration.
While Krasnopals have destroyed hundreds of military
vehicles, they too are not this war’s principal
widow-maker. That honor belongs to old-school 152-mm
shells coupled with humble Orlan-10 drones.
Perhaps the most basic of the 30 Russian-made
drones, the Orlan-10 uses a gasoline-fueled piston
engine to power a single-propeller plane with a
2-meter wingspan. Orlan-10s rely on rubber-band
powered catapults for launch and parachutes to land.
Orlan-10s carry retail, made-in-the-USA GPS systems
and off-the-shelf Canon cameras. Nevertheless,
Orlan-10s remain airborne for 16 hours at
5-kilometer altitudes whilst signaling real-time
data to communication hubs 600 kilometers away.
This is a Biden Administration subsidiary and it’s
committing colossal crimes against humanity
Typical front-line “battles” consist of
Orlan-10s beaming video of Ukrainian troops back to
Russian communication hubs which then radio
coordinates to batteries of four MSTA howitzers. The
MSTAs then rumble into firing positions up to 25
kilometers from the spotted Ukrainians. Within one
minute the MSTAs simultaneously fire 6 rounds each
before driving off to elude counter-artillery. Each
round carries a 45-kilogram shrapnel, or incendiary,
bomb. The Russian Information Agency recently
recounted a day wherein 157 such “battles” took
place. The Russians experienced zero casualties.
Circa Day 150, Russia claims to have destroyed:
4,141 battle tanks and other armored fighting
vehicles; 4,453 unarmored military vehicles; 3,176
artillery pieces and mortars; 762 multiple launch
rocket systems; 1,589 drones; 144 helicopters; and
357 anti-aircraft systems.
This tally equals all the equipment the Ukrainian
Army brought into this war. The same could be said
of the destruction wrought upon Ukraine’s Airforce
and Navy. Absent NATO’s gifts the Ukrainians would
be throwing stones.
At war’s outset, Ukrainian Generals commanded
250,000 troops. Casualties now approach this
quantum. One million new soldiers have been enlisted
and plans are to pressgang 2 million more. All
able-bodied men aged 18-to-60 are draftable.
Enlistment officers prowl beaches and parks for
draft evaders. Priests complain of enlistment
officers lurking outside church doors after Sunday
Mass. A one-night sweep through Kyiv’s bars netted
300 evaders.
From their silos Ukrainian mandarins spout
hallucinatory bombast. On July 18 Ukraine’s Foreign
Minister Dmytro Kuleba rejected peace talks until “after
the Russians have been defeated on the battlefield.”
The next day Deputy Defense Minister Volodymyr
Havrylov vowed to sink Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and
re-take Crimea.
Ukraine’s government is wholly dependent on foreign,
principally American, funds. Ukraine’s government
banned 16 political parties, including the main
opposition party; and nationalized the country’s
media. Ukraine’s government seems hellbent of
feeding millions of Ukrainians into the
wood-chipper. Of course, this isn’t “Ukraine’s”
government anymore. This is a Biden Administration
subsidiary and it’s committing colossal crimes
against humanity.
This isn’t Vlad Putin’s War. This is Whitey
Biden’s War and it’s a monstrous fiasco.
America’s historic party of slavery and war, the
Democrats, have woefully mis-stepped and
repercussions will be historic.
Historians will agonize over when the
Russo-Ukrainian War actually started; but as
Russia’s February 24 breach of Ukraine’s
borders has been deemed by our media as Day
One, let’s run with that. This makes June 4,
Day 100.
Western war reportage can be predicted a
week in advance by the simple expediency of
reading Russian Ministry of Defence
communiques. For instance, Russian news
outlets detailed the demise of Ukrainian
forces in Mariupol, complete with video of
thousands of troops surrendering, a week
before our media begrudgingly conceded this
fact. This time lag repeats regularly,
lending credence to Russian claims.
Conversely, Ukraine’s Centre for Information
and Psychological Operations (the source of
much media malarky) has been caught
inserting video game clips into its
pressers, and producing disinformation
howlers like the ‘Ghost of Kiev’ fighter ace
fables. They stage mock battles for
propaganda.
Their most persistent myth has
Ukrainian forces beating back Russian
attempts to overrun Kiev and Kharkiv. In
reality, Russian maneuverings around those
cities were ruses. These feints superbly
misdirected Ukrainian military assets at the
expense of shoring-up forces along the
eastern front.
How do we know this?
At no time did Russia have less than 15,000
crack troops enmeshed in the brutal 3-month
Battle of Mariupol. At no time did Russia
have as many as 15,000 troops in Kiev’s
environs – a city 8 times Mariupol’s size.
The Russians never assembled adequate forces
to assault Kiev.
Circa Day 40, Russian forces north of Kiev
and Kharkiv u-turned back to Belarus then
wheeled around to flank Ukraine’s eastern
front where Russia now enjoys a 7-to-1 troop
advantage. Ukraine’s legendary re-capturing
of territory north of Kiev and Kharkiv
consisted of shotless excursions into
vacated villages and farmland.
Nevertheless, this nothing-burger is
relentlessly mongered as Ukraine’s pivotal
triumph.
How do we know the Ukrainians are
preposterously lying and that Russian
accounts are closer to the truth?
By every expert opinion the Russian Air
Force is a modern, massive enterprise
seconded only by their American counterpart.
Ukraine’s air force barely ranked before
February 24. Since then, 16 of its
airfields, and 186 of its combat aircraft,
have been destroyed. Ukraine has been
effectively fighting without an air force
throughout this entire conflict.
NATO reinforcements arrive too little too
late; if they arrive at all. They often get
blasted before they reach the front
Moreover, unlike America’s foreign
entanglements this war is not taking place
on the other side of the planet from Russia.
Its happening next door. Russia can
concentrate vastly more air power onto
Ukraine than the Americans could on Iraq.
Furthermore, the Russians have eliminated
329 Ukrainian anti-aircraft systems and
scores of radar stations.
Finally, while Ukraine boasts a
2,700-kilometre coastline, their navy didn’t
survive Day One.
The Russians have fired thousands of
sea-launched and air-launched precision
missiles at defenseless Ukrainian positions.
This war is a turkey shoot.
After Day 40 the war became primarily an
artillery dual with the Russians enjoying a
massive firepower advantage. Said advantage
has been multiplied by the destruction of
1,768 Ukrainian field artillery guns and 464
Ukrainian rocket launchers. These losses
represent well over half of what Ukraine
brought to this war, and virtually all of
what they deployed along the eastern front.
NATO reinforcements arrive too little too
late; if they arrive at all. They often get
blasted before they reach the front.
Warehouses storing western munitions, and
barracks housing foreign mercs, have proven
to be sitting ducks.
Ukrainian “blocker battalions” lurk behind
Ukrainian lines to prevent flight,
surrender, or any other real or imagined
disobedience
Russian Defence Minister, Sergei
Shoigu, describes the war as an opportunity
to perfect the nexus between surveillance
drones and artillery batteries. Drone
operators spot Ukrainian troop
concentrations. They immediately communicate
these coordinates to gunnery captains who,
as soon as possible, hammer those spots. In
one recent 24-hour period Russian artillery
barraged 1,100 locations.
Russia claims to have destroyed 3,399
armoured vehicles; 3,402 non-armoured
military vehicles; 1,091 drones and 129
helicopters.
On March 25 Russia estimated Ukrainian
casualties at 14,000 dead, 16,000 wounded.
On April 16 they upped fatality estimates to
23,000. This body-count now likely exceeds
40,000!
Ukrainian “blocker battalions” lurk behind
Ukrainian lines to prevent flight,
surrender, or any other real or imagined
disobedience. One such battalion is
dominated by ‘The Punisher’ – a notoriously
trigger-happy masked sniper who is probably
not a Ukrainian national and who probably
deserves a Russian medal for having shot
more Ukrainian soldiers than any Russian
has.
Despite Punisher’s best efforts 5,000
Ukrainians have surrendered. Rumours of
mutinies and other indicia of discontent
abound at all ranks of Ukraine’s army.
Zelensky’s neck is on the block.
This isn’t Vlad Putin’s War. This is Whitey
Biden’s War and it’s a monstrous fiasco.
America’s historic party of slavery and war,
the Democrats, have woefully mis-stepped and
repercussions will be historic.
Russia’s Ballistic Missile Deployments Along
Ukraine’s Eastern Border
Published on
Written
by William Walter Kay BA JD
The Ukrainians are bringing knives to a
gunfight. Kudos to The
Drive’s January 19th gallery
of stills and videos evincing Russia’s Iskander-M
(pictured) build-up along Ukraine’s eastern
border.
(1) Best estimates have 48 launchers deployed,
each packing two Iskander-M missiles, and with
plenty of spare ammo on hand.
Although by no means an exemplar, this article
is not Russian-friendly, hence discusses the
Iskander deployment with obligatory references
to the missiles’ “nuclear potential” and to its
ability to strike Kiev. This is hyperbole. The
arrayed Iskander-M fleet carry conventional
warheads and they will strike frontline
Ukrainian Army assets.
Contemporary reportage on potential Ukrainian
war scenarios read like World War II
re-enactments. (Indeed, the adversaries
increasingly dress the part.) Scenarios envision
clashes of infantry and armour – boots on the
ground and main battle tanks. Generals plan to
re-fight the last war, not their next war.
Either through groupthink and/or hidden
censorship, Ukrainian forces act as though they
are in denial of the Iskander-M’s game-changing
presence.
The Iskander-M is a late Cold War weapon
re-purposed for regional conflicts; and, ideally
suited for attacking second-tier military
forces. The Iskander-M is a miniaturized
knock-off of America’s Pershing-II.
While not the first tractor-drawn ballistic
missile system with a hydraulically erected
launch silo, the Pershing II represented a
break-through in miniaturization, guidance, and
speed. It was exclusively intended
to carry nuclear warheads. 108 Pershing IIs were
deployed in West Germany in the early 1980s.
After the 1988 Intermediate-Range Weapons Treaty
nixed the Pershing II program all 108 were
withdrawn and scrapped.
Diametrically, 1988 heralded Iskander’s conception.
The program survived the break-up of the Soviet
Union, although effective deployment of Iskander-M
systems was delayed until 2006. While the
Iskander-M can carry nuclear warheads; this is
not its designed mission. (Moreover, Volkswagens
can carry nuclear warheads.)
Iskander-M rockets carry several types of conventional warhead
i.e., high explosive, fragmenting submunitions,
electro-magnetic pulse, thermobaric,
bunker-buster etc. Iskander-M launch systems
also fire sub-sonic cruise missiles.
Pershing IIs were two-stage rockets weighing
7,500 kilograms. Iskander-M launch vehicles
carry two separate single-stage rockets with a
combined weight of 7,600 kilograms. Both systems
use rapid-fire solid fuels. (Liquid fueling must
be done on site and is time-consuming.) Pershing
IIs were 10.6 metres long and 1 metre wide.
Iskander-Ms are 7.3 metres long and 0.9 metres
wide. The Pershing II flew faster (Mach 8 versus
Mach 6) and further (1,800 kilometres versus 450
kilometres) than the Iskander-M.
Currently, the Ukrainian government faces its
domestic adversaries across a jagged
500-kilometre frontline. To the west are 125,000
Ukrainian soldiers (half of Ukraine’s total
troop strength). To the east lie the
self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s
Republics, together boasting 35,000 troops. The
Ukrainians contend, and the Russians deny, an
additional 3,000 Russian Special Ops troops
bolster the breakaway Republics’ upstart armies.
To the east of Donbass lies Russia’s western
border whereupon some 100,000 troops and 48
Iskander-M launchers are deployed. Not far to
the south, and off the east coast of the Azov
Sea, Russian cruise-missile frigates hold
anchor.
No part of the frontline is much more than 100
kilometres away from the Russian border. Almost
all of Ukraine’s forward forces are concentrated
in pockets within 200 kilometres of the Iskander
launch vehicles. Ukraine’s forces are sitting
ducks. Compressed parabola trajectories will
allow 800-kilogram warheads to hit targets at
six times the speed of sound within minutes of
launch. The system boasts an ability to hit a
7-metre diameter circle from 400 kilometres
away.
The Russians possess up-to-the-minute data from
drones, satellites, high altitude aircraft,
ground reconnaissance, and intelligence
intercepts regarding the micro-locations of
Ukrainian frontline deployments. The Iskander-M
possesses four guidance systems including one
operating on a data base of digital photographs
of routes and targets which the Russians have
surveyed, from the air, countless times.
The first half-hour of the rumoured war’s
kinetic engagement may see 96 Iskander warheads,
and as many sea-launched cruise missiles,
hitting the Ukrainian Army’s: fuel storage
depots, command-and-control infrastructure,
transportation hubs, troop concentrations,
artillery pieces, and arsenals etc. The
Ukrainian Army could not withstand one hour of
such battering; and they have zero defence.
Road-mobile short-range ballistic missile (SRBM)
systems rely on shoot-and-scoot tactics to
continuously conceal the location of the
launchers. Iskander-Ms can be camouflaged,
shielded with smokescreens, and surrounded by
decoys. Ukraine’s Air Force and Army attack
helicopters will have to prowl slowly at low
altitudes to find the Iskander-Ms. These
missions must occur over Russian territory
riddled with tens of thousands of combat-ready
Russian troops wielding all manner of
anti-aircraft weaponry. The Ukrainians will not
take-out a single Iskander by such means.
Nor do the Ukrainians possess artillery or
missiles capable of reaching the Iskander
launchers.
Nor do they have missile intercept capabilities.
This may be the first modern Post-Cold
War war, i.e., the first decisive use of the
advances in ballistics and guidance, gained
during the Cold War’s twilight years, to deliver
conventional, legal warheads.
Iran, North Korea, China replicated Russia’s
investment in road-mobile SRBM technology while
the West gambled heavily on fighter-bombers.
Saudi, South Korean and Taiwanese airfields are
big stationary targets. Tractors and trailers
can be made almost undetectable from the air.
Written
by William Walter Kay BA JD